Posted by
boxflyz About Econ on Wednesday, July 11, 2007 12:06:39 PM
There are two FED speeches this morning and next to no data of any significance out this morning. Rates are higher in mid-morning trading with the 10-year Treasury +.031% and the rate at 5.069%.
Two unimportant items – as far as the bond market is concerned – were released as the market opened. Even though the bond market ignores the Mortgage Bankers Association’s two indexes, they are often important to readers of this blog. The more important is the MBA Purchase Application Index. Its week-to-week number is mostly flat at 442.75 verses the previous week’s 445.45. The weekly number was near one of its high at 453.9.
The MBA Refi Index was +1.1% verses last week’s -2.6%.
The two FED speeches this morning are:
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10:00 AM ET : |
Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (FOMC voting member) and Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Robert Steel to testify at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on hedge funds and systemic risks, in Washington. |
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11:00 AM ET : |
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser to speak about housing prices and U.S. monetary policy, at the European Economics and Financial Centre seminar, in London. Audience, media Q&A expected. |
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Sources: A special thanks to Market News Int'l for providing the scheduling information for the speeches. |
It is possible that Kevin Warsh’s testimony is influencing rates, but it has not yet hit the wires. This blog will update later if his comments did move bonds this morning.
Until and if that is the case, we need to assume that this mid-morning’s rate move is simply technical in nature as traders take their profits.
COMING UP THE REST OF THE WEEK:
Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance are published at the market’s opening on Thursday. The weekly Initial Jobless number is forecast to at 315k, lower than last week's 318k. The Trade Balance is expected to have a deficit of -$60.0B to -$60.2B. The T-Budget is out in Mid-day and is believed to show a balance of -$25B to -$31B. The first two can influence rates frequently, the T-Budget can occasionally.
There are two FED speeches, but both are after the market closes and may affect rates on Friday, but there is important items out in the morning.
Friday opens with the Retail Sales Report, and Import Prices. About two hours into trading sees the Business Inventories report and the prelim-Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. All of these items can move rates.
Steve Boxmeyer [612] 799 – 6858
steve@LendWithIntegrity.com