There were virtually no economic events today. Still, the 10-year Treasury closed higher as bond traders took some profit. The 10-year Treasury closed +.037% with the rate at 5.123%.

The only item was the MBA Purchase Application Index. It was ignored by the bond market, but held a small amount of good news for the real estate market. While the week-to-week change was lower than the previous week the 4-week moving average was higher. Last week the index was published at 464.7, the 4-week moving average was 440.85. This week the index was 450.9, but the 4-week moving average increased to 444.05.

TOMORROW, 21 June 2007

Thursday holds the week’s only important economic items.

The weekly Initial Jobless Claims is published at the market’s opening and is expected to about the same as last week’s 310k. Predictions range from 310k to 311k. A tight range of predictions like this has a small potential for surprises.

The Leading Economic Indicators is released at 09:00cdt {14:00gmt}. It is expected to be higher than last month with expectations ranging from 0.0% to +0.3%. Only one source is looking for the 0.0%. Often, they are correct when they are lower than the others. That would be good.

Finally, the Philadelphia Fed is also out, and is forecast to be 5.2 to 9.0. All are higher than last month’s 4.2. Most of the forecasts are 7.0 to 9.0. Only one has the 5.2, and it is the same one with a low prediction for LEI. That could also be good.

Steve Boxmeyer [612] 799 – 6858
steve@LendWithIntegrity.com